Amid a nationwide shift in the trucking market from an oversupplied capacity environment to a much more challenging one, the Midwest has been the most disrupted region over the past six months. Tender rejection rates in the nation’s largest region by volume have averaged 4 to 5 percentage points higher than the next-highest region for several months. Meanwhile, the West Coast is experiencing the lowest rejection levels in the country — potentially part of the same underlying mechanism.

Although much of the recent truckload market volatility has been attributed to weather, which has an outsized influence on the Midwest in the winter, there was no major weather event in September when rejection rates first began to diverge.

Concentration of Reefer:
One contributing factor to the Midwest’s relative tightness may be the strength of the refrigerated segment in that region. Roughly 30% to 35% of all outbound refrigerated tenders originate in the Midwest.

While the dry van market was relatively flat from September through late October, the refrigerated market tightened at a steady pace. The national van rejection index increased modestly from 4% to 4.7% during that period, while refrigerated rejections rose from roughly 8.5% to more than 13%.

Intermodal's Pull:
Another potential factor contributing to the Midwest's market tightness is the significant pull from the intermodal sector.