NASEM Study Questions Driver Shortage Claims
A study sponsored by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) and conducted by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) has cast doubt on claims of a persistent driver shortage in the trucking industry. The report, titled 'Pay and Working Conditions in the Long-Distance Truck and Bus Industries: Assessing for Effects on Driver Safety and Retention,' examined the impacts of pay and working conditions on long-distance truck and bus drivers. The NASEM study highlights that the American Trucking Associations (ATA) is a primary source for driver turnover data, but criticizes the ATA's survey methodology. The study notes that the ATA's survey, which has been ongoing for over 25 years, uses a self-selected sample, and its representativeness is uncertain. Furthermore, the report states, 'Because the ATA’s studies have been conducted using proprietary techniques and assumptions that are not publicly defined, it is not possible to evaluate the validity of their claims of driver shortages.' Despite questioning the shortage claims, the ATA's own reports indicate a chronic turnover problem in the long-haul segment of trucking. Between Q3 1996 and Q1 2023, large truckload carriers (earning $30 million or more annually) experienced an average annualized turnover rate of 92.7%, while smaller fleets (under $30 million) reported a 77.6% turnover rate. This contrasts with less-than-truckload carriers.