Freight Spend and Shipments Remain Soft in August
August data from Cass Information Systems indicates that the freight market is continuing its slow progression through an anticipated downturn. Both shipment volumes and freight expenditures decreased compared to the previous year. The Cass Freight Index for shipments fell by 1.9% year-over-year in August, following a 1.1% decline in July. Notably, the August figure was better than the projected 3% decrease. The report stated, "These represent the smallest declines in 18 months as goods demand continues to grow slowly, and slowing capacity additions reduce the pressure on for-hire shipments." On a seasonally adjusted basis, the volume dataset improved by 1% from July, marking the second consecutive monthly increase (up 3.1% seasonally adjusted in July), though it remains 12.3% below the 2022 level. The shipments index is forecasted to be down 3% year-over-year in September and is expected to decline by 3% to 4% for the entirety of 2024, after a 5.5% drop last year. This update from Cass aligns with recent comments from trucking industry leaders at an investor conference. Major truckload carriers, including Schneider National (NYSE: SNDR) and Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN), have indicated that the industry is still recovering from a prolonged recession, with no significant market inflection point yet observed, only normal seasonal demand trends. The expenditures index, which measures freight spending, also saw a significant decrease. August 2024 data shows a 9.0% year-over-year decline in expenditures, and a 31.8% drop compared to two years ago. Month-over-month, expenditures decreased by 2.0% and seasonally adjusted month-over-month by 1.3%. The Truckload (TL) Linehaul Index experienced a 3.3% year-over-year decrease and a 14.4% decrease compared to two years ago, with a 0.6% month-over-month decline. (SA – seasonally adjusted).