The number of people working in the segment that the Bureau of Labor Standards calls truck transportation was at its lowest level in November since the first post-pandemic months.
Getting a clear picture on employment levels in all sectors has been a challenge in recent months. The September report that was to be issued October 3 was delayed by the federal government shutdown. Those numbers finally came out November 20.
The first November and October numbers were released Tuesday. For November, that release absent the shutdown would have been December 5. For October, the release would have been November 7.
But with those two months now in the books, the continued erosion of employment levels in truck transportation is becoming more stark.
Truck transportation employment in November, according to BLS, was 1,509,600. That is 4,400 jobs less than October, which was 1,514,000 jobs. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
But what is striking is that when a September downward revision is put into the mix, truck transportation employment is down 13,800 jobs from July’s figure of 1,523,400 jobs, a recent high water mark.
The figure for November is the lowest since June 2021, when the BLS reported 1,508,300 jobs in truck transportation.
The all-time high for truck transportation jobs reported by the BLS was 1,587,900 jobs in July 2022. Current levels are down about 5% from that number.
Regulatory bite
David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said in an email to FreightWaves that expectations job losses would mount as a result of the dual crackdown on non-English speakers and non-domiciled CDL holders were coming to fruition.
“The results in October and November certainly support that thesis,” he said in an email to FreightWaves. “Strong seasonal rate increases despite what is being described as a weak demand environment also support the thought that large numbers of drivers have left the industry. This is likely a preview of what is to come in 2026.”
Spencer said the prospect of more capacity disappearing from the market because of “regulatory challenges” would result in a cascade of changes. “More balanced supply and demand conditions will lead to more volatility with spot rates, particularly during periods of increased seasonal demand,” he said. “It also increases the probability and likelihood of a larger, more sustained disruption.”
The transportation jobs report came against a backdrop of an overall drop in October of 105,000 jobs and an unspectacular gain of 64,000 jobs in November. Aaron Terrazas, an independent economist said the October drop came during the federal government shutdown, so should be “interpreted with a grain of salt.”
However, he added a cautionary note. “We’ve now had a pattern of a month of job gains followed by a month of job losses going back to June.”
In other highlights from the report:
- Warehouse employment in November rose, breaking a string of four consecutive months’ of decline. The increase was just 1,900 jobs, to 1,816,400 jobs. That only put a dent in the total job loss from the prior four months, which totaled 15,200 jobs. Employment in the sector is down from 1,844,400 jobs in November 2024.
- Rail employment continues to slide. Job levels in the rail sector had long been a sore subject with regulators whenever service issues popped up. And they did rise, topping out in March and April last year at 157,900 jobs (though well below the figures from a few years ago; they opened up January 2015 in excess of 200,000 jobs). Rail employment’s low point was in January 2022 at 143,200 jobs. But drip-by-drip, the industry has been losing jobs since the early 2024 peak. In November, they were 150,800 jobs, the lowest since February 2023 and down 7,100 jobs since its recent peak.
- Courier jobs fell hard, to 1,119,600 from 1,137,500 in October. They peaked at 1,154,700 jobs in August. The November number is slightly below a year ago. Terrazas said the decline between October and November was “ a surprising data point for a time of year when demand typically peaks for these types of workers.” “Package delivery employment has been especially volatile over the past year as the industry experiments more broadly with contract employment models and as smaller package delivery firms have struggled to remain solvent,” Terrazas said.
- The average hourly wage for production and nonsupervisory employees in truck transportation through October, the latest month for which data is available, set a new all-time high at $31.40. It rose from $31.10. A year ago it was $29.88.
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