Just over 53% of respondents in our ongoing future tech survey believe traditional bunker fuel will still be used for the majority of the global merchant fleet in 10 years’ time.
The bunkering question is one of 14 topics posed in a survey launched by Splash in partnership with Inmarsat seeking reader input on how ship operations will change in the coming decade with results due to be published in Ship Concept 2035, a magazine due for distribution at Nor-Shipping this June.
Data from Clarksons Research shows that less than 8% of the global merchant fleet in gt terms today is alternative fuel capable, although more than half of all ships on order will be able to use alternative fuels.
Uncertainty about the scale and nature of the International Maritime Organization’s proposed carbon levy is holding back green investment, Christopher Wiernicki, chairman and CEO of ABS, a class society, said during an appearance at the CERAWeek energy conference earlier this month.
“A carbon levy is a wild card. It will all depend on how it is implemented and enforced. There’s a huge question mark over whether this will deliver for the industry and there is much still to be decided,” said Wiernicki. “Will the levy be set at $18, $100 or even $150 per ton? Today, we just don’t know but this clearly has a significant bearing on a host of factors: operational, investment and asset viability. With the lack of a clear global carbon pricing mechanism, it is no wonder owners are cautious and concerned given the high degree of uncertainty this introduces into the market,” said Wiernicki.
Jason Stefanatos, global decarbonisation director at rival class society DNV, commented: “The success of the maritime fuel transition depends on the parallel development of key components like bunkering infrastructure and fuel supply. This can also be enhanced by the implementation of energy efficiency measures, which can both deliver short-term emissions reductions and support the long-term adoption of low- and zero-carbon fuels.”
Claudene Sharp-Patel, global technical director at Lloyd’s Register, commented: “Without decisive action to scale up alternative fuel supply chains, shipowners will face increasing compliance costs and operational uncertainty. We need greater regulatory clarity and investment to bridge the gap between ambition and action.”
Sharp-Patel’s colleague at LR, Nick Brown, the company’s CEO, told Splash: “The next decade will determine the shape of the industry’s long-term sustainability, demanding not just technological advancements but also greater investment in seafarers and human capital, which remain fundamental to creating the long-term change we need.”
The energy transition for international shipping will cost the equivalent of one NEOM per month for the next 20 years, according to statistics from Dr Tristan Smith, professor of energy and transport at the UCL Energy Institute. NEOM is a 26,500 km megacity the Saudis are embarking building in the far northwest of the kingdom on the Red Sea, one of the biggest engineering works ever conceived anywhere in the world.
Ship Concept 2035 will give readers a glimpse of what is realistic for newbuilds coming out of yards 10 years from now. Taking into account regulations, fuels, information technology, seafaring skills, shipyards and charterers this unique magazine gives a big picture beyond the hype of what is practical for vessels delivering by the middle of the next decade.
Crew numbers, artificial intelligence, reskilling, and automation are some of the topics covered in the survey.
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