The Dalilah Law could create a trucking rate super cycle

The Dalilah Law, the Senate bill introduced by Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) following President Trump’s call during the State of the Union, would trigger a sharp, immediate contraction in trucking capacity if enacted, potentially igniting a trucking super cycle with overnight rate surges amid severely tight supply. Much higher trucking rates could become permanent, giving carriers the best operating conditions in decades.

By limiting commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) to U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents, and holders of only a narrow set of work visas (E-2 treaty investors, H-2A agricultural workers, H-2B non-agricultural workers), the legislation would force states to revoke thousands of existing CDLs held by undocumented individuals and many others with temporary or non-qualifying immigration status. It also mandates English-only knowledge and skills testing, plus a mandatory recertification process for current holders, all enforced by the threat of withheld federal highway funding for non-compliant states.

This is not another FMCSA regulation, guidance document, or agency interpretation that could be softened, delayed, or reversed by a future administration. If Congress passes the bill and the President signs it, the Dalilah Law becomes statutory federal law, effective immediately upon enactment. States would have no choice but to comply swiftly to protect their transportation funding, with only the bill’s built-in 180-day recertification window offering any transition period for existing drivers.

The capacity math is straightforward and severe. Foreign-born drivers currently comprise roughly 18–19% of the U.S. trucking workforce, around 630,000–720,000 out of approximately 3.5–3.8 million total drivers/CDL holders, per Bureau of Labor Statistics and industry reports. While not all would be directly affected (many hold citizenship or permanent residency), the bill’s strict eligibility criteria, excluding undocumented individuals, most temporary statuses, and imposing English-only mandates, align closely with scenarios analyzed in a detailed report prepared for J.B. Hunt by Noël Perry of Transport Futures.

That analysis estimates that full implementation of similar immigration enforcement policies, including English proficiency requirements, documentation checks, and restrictions on non-domiciled/temporary CDLs, could put over 600,000 drivers at risk, or about 16% of the active driver population (with a modeled figure of approximately 614,000 drivers disqualified under conservative assumptions from FMCSA data). The breakdown includes roughly 197,000 from English proficiency failures, 252,000 (net) from undocumented status/documentation issues, and 167,000 (net) from non-domiciled status revocations, plus overlaps and hiring restrictions.

Trucks don’t drive themselves. Removing that many operators from the road, potentially exceeding 20% when factoring in the bill’s nationwide scope, rapid revocations, and stringent language mandates, would shrink available capacity overnight, echoing but accelerating beyond the most aggressive prior enforcement projections. Fewer trucks chasing the same freight volumes would mean tighter supply in key lanes and a severe capacity crunch.

The crunch would instantly drive massive spot rate increases for truckload capacity, followed by sharp rises in contract rates as shippers and carriers adjust to reality. Trucking firms would face far fewer available drivers and would sharply increase wages, with sign-on bonuses potentially reaching tens of thousands of dollars.

The result would resemble a COVID-like capacity crunch, but without the relief valve of new immigrant drivers, whose influx previously sustained excess capacity and contributed to the Great Freight Recession.

Historical precedents from capacity crunches (e.g., the 2021 freight boom) saw spot and contract rates surge in double-digit percentages when supply tightened significantly. A loss on this scale could trigger similar or sharper increases: high double-digit rate hikes (potentially 50–100% on some lanes) aren’t out of the question, especially if removals occur fast and hard without gradual offsets.

While higher trucking rates would be highly impactful for trucking companies and could contribute modestly to goods price increases, trucking freight represents a small share of finished goods prices—typically less than 4% depending on the product—and any broader inflationary effects on headline CPI would likely remain limited and contained. Doubling of trucking rates would increase consumer prices by less than 1%. 

Fleets would gain massive negotiating leverage in the short term due to reduced competition, but replacing or hiring drivers would become slower and more expensive in a constrained pool. Larger carriers might accelerate consolidation to capture remaining capacity, but the overall dynamic remains clear: supply tightens dramatically, rates rise sharply.

This isn’t a gradual policy shift with built-in cushions or prolonged legal challenges. It’s hard statute, locked in until Congress acts again. The Dalilah Law would reset who can legally hold a CDL nationwide, and trucking would feel the resulting capacity squeeze and corresponding rate surge immediately.

Freight market data charts featured in this article come from SONAR and available via subscription at GoSONAR.com

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