A monthly report compiling sentiment among supply chain managers said February provided more evidence “that the long-awaited freight market comeback is in full-swing.”

The Logistics Managers’ Index—a diffusion index in which a reading above 50 indicates expansion while one below 50 signals contraction—returned a reading of 41 for transportation capacity in February. That was 6 percentage points lower than January and on par with November 2021—”the height of the covid shipping boom.”

The squeeze on capacity was widespread but especially pronounced at large companies (1,000 employees or more), which reported a contraction rate of 32.6.

Severe winter storms in December and January temporarily reduced available capacity. However, carriers and 3PLs continue to point to heightened regulatory enforcement as the driving force behind the market tightening.

“The demand is clearly there though,” the Tuesday report said. “FreightWaves’ flatbed tender rejection rate exceeded 32% for the second time in its eight-year history.” (The dataset currently stands at 46%.)

The report said this is likely an indicator of increased upstream activity at the manufacturing level of the supply chain.

FreightWaves dry van data shows meaningful capacity tightening as well, holding elevated readings through the seasonally weakest part of the year.

SONAR: Van Outbound Tender Rejection Index (VOTRI.USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). A proxy for truck capacity, the tender rejection index shows the number of dry van loads being rejected by carriers. Current tender rejections show a tightened truckload market. To learn more about SONAR, click here.

Transportation utilization (61.9) increased 3.8 points in February to the highest reading since May 2022, and “a far cry from September 2025 when this metric was breaking even at 50.0.”

Transportation prices (76.7) increased 5.2 points to a level not seen in four years. Pricing sentiment among upstream firms (79.7) came in more than 11 points higher than indications from downstream retailers.

“It is unclear how changes in tariff policy or the potential for expansion in global conflicts could impact things,” the report said. “For this moment however, the high rates of turnover pushed by partly by tariffs have led to the most robust freight market in four years.”

Looking ahead, logistics managers expect these conditions to persist and even intensify. Transportation prices are expected to significantly expand over the next 12 months, with respondents returning a forecast reading of 80.3, a level that would be the fastest rate of expansion since the market peak of March 2022. Transportation capacity is expected to remain in contraction at 44.9.

“If these predictions hold it would mark a real shift back towards a booming transportation market.”

SONAR: National Truckload Index (linehaul only – NTIL.USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). The NTIL is based on an average of booked spot dry van loads from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel. Spot rates stepped higher through peak season as new constraints on the driver pool took hold. Severe winter weather amid a tighter capacity backdrop kept rates elevated in recent weeks.

The overall LMI stood at 61.5 in February, up 1.9 points from January. This marked the highest reading in a year and the third-highest in the past four years.

Inventory levels (53.8) slid 10 basis points sequentially, remaining only modestly expansionary. Small companies (60) reported expansion while large companies (44.6) said merchandise levels contracted.

Inventory Costs (67.8) declined 3.5 points but remained inflationary. Companies continue to mitigate elevated interest rates and warehouse rents through just-in-time inventory strategies, potentially leaving them “more vulnerable to disruptions.”

Warehousing capacity (50) remained neutral again in February. Warehousing utilization (60.3) increased 5.9 points and stood 17.4 points higher than December, when merchandise levels were drawn down to the lowest level in the dataset’s nine-year history. Warehousing prices (62.6) remained inflationary, but the growth rate was 2.1 points slower sequentially.

Prologis (NYSE: PLD) said in January that the warehouse market is inflecting. The industrial REIT’s 2026 guidance calls for slight improvement in occupancy across the industry as facility deliveries slow, allowing rents to step modestly higher.

The LMI is a collaboration among Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Florida Atlantic University, Rutgers University and the University of Nevada, Reno, conducted in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals.

More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden:

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