In a spirited debate at the Chicago Traffic Club, two of the transportation industry’s most influential voices squared off on the challenges facing freight markets. Craig Fuller, founder and CEO of FreightWaves, and Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT, delivered sharp insights while trading occasional barbs under the moderation of Armchair Attorney Matthew Leffler.
The debate immediately established the contrasting positions of these freight intelligence powerhouses via light-hearted jabs. Fuller characterized DAT as “stuck in the old ways of doing trucking,” still operating like the original Dial-A-Truck from 1978. Adamo fired back, describing DAT as “the largest, most successful, most innovative tech company in all of freight and logistics,” highlighting their evolution from punch cards and CRT monitors to modern technology and AI.
Non-domiciled CDLs and the freight recession
The conversation quickly turned to the recent interim rule from the FMCSA affecting non-domiciled CDL holders, which has been temporarily paused by court action. While the rule could remove 5-7% of drivers from the market, both experts agreed the real story is the severe oversupply plaguing the industry.
“If we were seeing capacity come out relative to demand, rates would go up, and they just frankly haven’t gone up,” Adamo said.
The industry remains stuck in one of the worst freight recessions in generations.
Fuller painted an even more nuanced picture of the dysfunction. He described a market that’s “slowly melting up” in spot rates while experiencing “anemic volumes,” with truckload volumes down double digits year over year. This creates a particularly difficult environment for freight brokers who are “held hostage to this condition of a melting up spot rate with a lack of volume.”
Adamo offered little hope for near-term recovery, noting that weak port volumes signal a disappointing peak season and tariffs have failed to boost freight movement.
“The economy stinks, especially the consumer economy. And what do we all ship? Things that fuel the consumer economy,” he said. “I don’t think anyone in freight and logistics really wants a supply-driven freight recovery. Those aren’t fun. We want demand to come back. We want people buying new patio furniture.”
Fuller expanded on the volume discussion, highlighting a significant divide between contract and spot markets. He explained that freight brokers have chased rates down over the last couple of years and picked up enormous market share, often buying capacity from non-domiciled CDL holders. This has dried up demand for asset-based carriers, creating challenging conditions reflected in earnings reports across the industry.
The ELP enforcement debate
One of the most contentious exchanges centered on the enforcement of English Language Proficiency (ELP) requirements for commercial drivers. Fuller argued that the issue extends beyond the often discussed Spanish-speaking Latino drivers to include Eastern European populations and drivers from India and Pakistan. He cited conversations with insurance industry sources suggesting that as much as 10% of the truck driver population may not speak English.
Fuller also detailed how policy changes in 2019 allowed foreigners to obtain CDLs more easily, sometimes without proper verification of work permits. A 2021 change to driver training requirements created a system where “36,000 registered entities can certify that the driver has completed driver training” despite there being only “2,000 certified truck driving schools.”
Adamo challenged Fuller’s assessment of the scale of the issue, suggesting that ELP violations represent only about 1.5% of violations, far less than equipment maintenance issues.
“I think we all agree that people should speak English, but I don’t think there’s a million truck drivers out there that can’t speak English,” Adamo countered.
Looking ahead, Fuller predicted that larger shippers will increasingly mandate compliance with ELP requirements and seek more direct relationships with asset-based carriers who can certify their drivers meet requirements.
“The larger asset-based carriers are actually in a really good position as we go forward because they can go in and demonstrate why they hired the driver,” he said, suggesting brokers may get squeezed in this new environment.
The debate also touched on enforcement priorities, with Adamo suggesting authorities are simply “shifting enforcement around” rather than increasing overall enforcement resources.
Fuller strongly disagreed, pointing to the massive funding allocated in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. He noted that the Trump administration secured $30 billion for immigration enforcement, enough to rank in the top 10 of funded militaries worldwide if it were a military budget.
Fuller argued that trucking provides “air cover” for broader immigration policies, making it a politically safe enforcement target for the administration. He pointed to the mathematics of enforcement. With 5,000 truck-related fatalities happening each year and foreign-born drivers representing a significant portion of the workforce, Fuller argued that, statistically, there could be multiple deaths involving immigrant drivers every day. This gives the Trump administration powerful imagery to support broader immigration crackdowns.
The automation question
When the conversation turned to AI and automation, Adamo noted that the technology has already advanced to the point where many people don’t realize they’re talking to AI. He cited C.H. Robinson’s latest earnings release, showing they’re up to 70% automation among some of their front-end order taking.
Fuller compared the situation to the evolution of the internet, noting that younger workers who grew up with AI see it as a natural tool rather than something separate. He also predicted that freight brokers will have no choice but to adopt these technologies to drive costs out of their businesses.
Both experts agreed that autonomous trucking is not a question of if but when.
Fuller traced the evolution of autonomous trucking investment, noting that when FreightWaves launched in 2017, there were 30 venture-backed autonomous trucking companies. Today, only three remain, as the technology proved far too early and commercially unviable. However, he sees this as a temporary setback.
“Over the next five to 10 years, the technology is gonna get better and we’re gonna end up in that J-curve of adoption,” Fuller said.
While the transformation won’t happen overnight, he predicted that by 2035 to 2040, it will be both socially and legally acceptable to have driverless trucks handling point-to-point transportation.
The perceived driver shortage
While Fuller and Adamo agreed that there is no current shortage of drivers on the road, the two experts differ in their perception of a potential future – or past – driver shortage.
Adamo tied the current pool of available drivers to FMCSA’s laissez-faire attitude toward enforcing safety standards.
“We’ve solved the truck driver shortage by accepting the externality of unsafe roads, unsafe equipment, and untrained or undertrained drivers,” he argued. “If we raised all of those standards, we would absolutely have a shortage.”
Fuller countered with a market-based perspective. He argued there is no systemic driver shortage, just changing economic dynamics. When demand increases and more drivers are needed, companies work to make truck driving jobs more attractive to fill seats.
“The market will correct that problem, and it will continue to drive wages up,” he said, noting that freight markets have consistently attracted qualified talent when compensation aligns with demand.
Fuller’s point suggests that when rates rise and job conditions improve, drivers enter or re-enter the workforce without intervention.
Looking ahead
Fuller predicted that some top brokers are currently insolvent and that there will be “a number of large bankruptcies that happen over the next year for large asset carriers.” Adamo agreed that consolidation is likely, particularly among mid-sized fleets.
Fuller emphasized that, unlike the LTL market, where Yellow’s collapse removed 9% of capacity last year, no single truckload carrier is large enough to fundamentally change the market trajectory if it fails.
Throughout the exchange, both leaders demonstrated deep industry knowledge while offering contrasting interpretations of the same market conditions. The debate highlighted how even industry experts can view the same data through different lenses.
The insights from Fuller and Adamo underscore the complex interplay between regulatory enforcement, market dynamics, and economic conditions that will shape freight markets in the coming months.
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