Donald Trump and tariffs are very much back in shipping news headlines, with one key deal seemingly agreed and plenty of others under negotiation ahead of a deadline next week.
The July 9 expiration date for the White House’s pause on April’s reciprocal tariffs on a long list of countries is rapidly approaching. The administration says it is aiming to wrap up negotiations with its ten largest trade partners after July 4, and may unilaterally set tariff levels for other countries soon.
Trump took to social media yesterday to claim a trade deal had been reached with Vietnam.
Trump said tariffs on Vietnam will now be 20%, not 46%. However, 40% tariffs will be applied on the transhipping of goods, a measure squarely aimed at China, which the Trump administration says is using Vietnam as a backdoor for rebadged exports to the US. In return, Vietnam will drop its own tariffs on US products to zero.
Prior to the Vietnam news, which has yet to be confirmed, liner giant Maersk calculated yesterday that on average, companies are currently paying an effective average tariff rate of approximately 21% relative to container load on all US imports, according to Maersk’s container-weighted effective average tariff rate metric. At its peak, shortly after April 2, the average effective rate was 54%.
Container volumes were up 4% worldwide year-on-year in the first half of the year, according to Clarksons Research, which warned this week that periods of frontloading and pauses, notably on the transpacific, make H2 a difficult call for both the container and car trades.
“We believe the sector is back to a structural downcycle, driven by the peaking of the tariff pause-led cargo rush and potentially softer demand in 2H25 due to tariff headwinds and front-loading-led early peak season,” HSBC forecast in a container markets report this week.
