Monthly import volumes through major U.S container ports are expected to slip below the 2 million TEU mark through the remainder of the year, according to Global Port Tracker data report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release. “New sectoral tariffs continue to be announced, but most retailers are well-stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”
Monthly container imports averaged 2.35 million twenty foot equivalent units in 2024, and around 2.5 million TEUs so far in 2025.
But analysts are warning that a cooling labor market, inflationary pressures and uncertainty in the face of other economic headwinds are putting the brakes on consumer spending. Morgan Stanley forecast spending to grow at 3.7% in 2025, down from 5.7% in 2024.
The NRF said U.S. ports handled 2.32 million TEUs in August, down 2.9% from the year’s peak 2.39 million TEUs in July but up 0.1% year over year.
September volume is projected at 2.12 million TEUs, off 6.8% y/y.
President Trump’s latest tariffs of 25% on furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities are set to take effect next week and increase in January, regardless of country. The NRF said the clock is also ticking on August’s 90-day tariff pause extension which is set to expire Nov. 10, absent another extension or a new trade deal with China.
The trade group said October is forecast at 1.97 million TEUs, down 12.3% y/y, and November at 1.75 million TEUs, down 19.2%. December volume is forecast at 1.72 million TEUs, a decline of 19.4% and the slowest month since 1.62 million TEUs in March 2023.
“While the falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, the year-over-year percentage declines are both because of this year’s early peak season and because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes,” the NRF said.
First-half shipments totaled 12.53 million TEUs, a gain of 3.7% y/y. Full-year volume is forecast at 24.79 million TEUs, off 2.9% from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024.
The New Year isn’t bringing much good news, either.
January volume is forecast at 1.87 million TEUs, 16.1% lower y/y, and February projects at 1.77 million TEU, 12.8% weaker.
Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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