US president Donald Trump has signed an order imposing an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, in response to the country’s continued imports of Russian energy, the White House said on Wednesday, a move that could reshape the global tanker trades. The decision came hours after talks between the US and Russia over the war in Ukraine ended without a breakthrough. The new tariffs are set to take effect within 21 days and are in addition to the already planned country-specific tariffs of 25%.
Analysts at Braemar suggested yesterday’s announcement from the White House would make Indian refiners more risk-averse.
TheNayara refinery – part-owned by Rosneft and a key importer of Russian crude – has already reduced run rates in response to European sanctions imposed on July 18.
Indian refiners may see buying more US crude as a tool to negotiate relief from US tariffs, Braemar suggested.
“If India replaces Russian crude barrels fully, we can expect to see employment of younger ships rising,” Braemar predicted in a markets update sent to clients. Over 58% of Russian flows to India were on tankers 18+ years old in H1 this year. Back in 2021, before the Russian invasion, only 10% of all Indian imports involved tankers 18+ years old.
Over the past year, Russian crude has made up about a third of India’s total crude imports. This is up from 2% before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Analysis from rival broker Gibson pointed out that India – and other buyers of Russian crude – have more to lose from siding with Russia over the US.
“The value of goods exported from China, India, Brazil and Turkey to the United States far outweighs the value exported to Russia, meaning that if Trump really does impose secondary tariffs, these countries might be forced to at least partially appease the US,” Gibson observed in a recent report, adding that it did not see it likely that China would bow to US pressure.
“Buyers and sellers are likely to find ways to circumvent the new rules and may increasingly go dark with their trading practices to ensure cargoes find a way to the market,” Gibson suggested.
BRS has statistics on the sharp growth in the so-called grey tanker fleet this year, with the broker suggesting the grey fleet has been growing by around 30 tankers a month in 2025, even as Western authorities unleash the most aggressive sanctions seen for many years.
The India tariff news comes as Trump’s sweeping new tariffs on more than 90 countries around the world have come into effect.
“IT’S MIDNIGHT!!! BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN TARIFFS ARE NOW FLOWING INTO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!,” Trump said on social media minutes before the deadline in Washington.
