Splash’s editor gives readers his take on the world of shipping in the year 2025.
At financial newswire Bloomberg, the official style guide has always shied away from using words such as but or if in sentences. “Clauses that start with although, but, despite or however often confuse more than clarify, because the words connect dissimilar ideas in a single sentence,” Matthew Winkler, editor-in-chief emeritus, writes in The Bloomberg Way.
In 2025, however, every other report carried by Splash – and every shipping analyst – has required caveats.
Whether it related to what Trump might do next, when the Houthis might end their campaign, or how long freight rates might remain elevated, just about every market sentiment in this most extraordinary year has had to be tinged with a proviso.
Even the safest forecasts are only ever as solid as the next scrawled Sharpie signature from the White House incumbent
This has become the defining editorial tension of the year: the industry is desperate for certainty, yet every data point arrives with an asterisk. Rate spikes come with the warning that they may evaporate overnight if the Houthis hold fire, while fleet growth projections hinge on geopolitical moods that shift by the hour.
For editors, the challenge has been to tell clear stories in a world that refuses to behave clearly. Analysts once comfortable with linear forecasts now speak in branching scenarios. Owners who previously offered straight-line guidance now lace their comments with conditional verbs and shrugged acknowledgements of the unknown. Words like for now, unless, contingent on, and pending further developments have elbowed their way into quarterly updates.
If 2024 was the year of disruption, then 2025 is undeniably the year of the caveat — a year in which the shipping industry has been reminded, repeatedly and emphatically, that clarity is a luxury, certainty is a myth, and even the safest forecasts are only ever as solid as the next geopolitical twist or scrawled Sharpie signature from the White House incumbent.
As the most consequential US presidential term in my lifetime unfolds, global tradelanes have been rewired. China’s record-breaking trade surplus of over $1trn in the first 11 months of the year came about despite a 29% drop in trade with the US, the Middle Kingdom redirecting cargoes to alternate markets on an astonishing scale and speed.
Highlights for Splash this year have been the sold-out showing at Geneva Dry, the launch of our Splash Singapore conference, as well as the decision to make our monthly title, Splash Extra, free to air. The Splash Extra team, earlier this week, picked out their top eight news items of the year, readable here.
Daily Splash, our free newsletter, will not be sent out again until January 5, although our team will be updating the site every day during the Christmas holidays.
Wishing everyone a fine finish to 2025, and a less traumatic 2026. Here’s the Freaky Wave’s festive take.
