New data from broker SSY shows drydocking in the supramax and ultramax bulker sectors is reaching a peak.
Because of the surge in newbuilding deliveries in the dry bulk sector following the shipping boom of the late noughties, subsequent five-year renewal survey schedules have reflected these deliveries. Currently these vessels are approaching their third special survey, typically longer than the earlier surveys, and the associated drydocking activity has had a meaningful impact on effective supply growth and continues to do so.
Higher drydocking activity over the past couple of years has temporarily withdrawn the equivalent of about 2% of the supramax and ultramax fleet from service, according to SSY, which is forecasting that the drydocking wave will peak some time between now and mid-2026, remaining steady through mid-2027 before turning into a headwind thereafter.
“There is upside risk to these estimates, both due to the unobserved impact of waiting time and the likelihood that this round of third surveys end up taking longer. Supramax owners may, therefore, enjoy the tighter market a bit longer,” SSY suggested in a note to clients.
The coming wave of regulatory retrofits is pushing repair shipyards to the brink of capacity constraints. As owners scramble to comply with rules such as the EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime and tougher Carbon Intensity Indicator mandates, the demand for decarbonisation modifications is swelling — and yard slots are already tightening.
UK consultancy Drewry reports that yard days for capesize ships are rising sharply in 2025, as retrofits reduce the effective supply of vessels available to trade.
Owners are installing propulsion upgrades, energy-saving devices, hybrid systems and shaft generators, among other machinery, many of which can’t be done in short drydock windows.
Greek broker Intermodal noted recently the trend has spread beyond capesizes: bulkers, tankers, containerships and gas carriers are all seeing early retrofits in 2025 as firms try to beat 2026 regulatory deadlines.
Modelling by ABS and Maritime Strategies International suggests that under a “full conversion” scenario, demand for yard slots could exceed capacity as early as 2028 — producing a “gt-day” shortfall that balloons by 2030. In a more moderate “base case,” where around half the eligible fleet is retrofitted, the strain on yards is still intense though manageable, if lead times shrink.
