Seaborne agricultural trade reached a new high in 2025, with volumes pushing to 716.5m tonnes, according to analysis from Ursa Shipbrokers.
The figure, based on load dates and covering all cargoes and bulk carrier types, marks a 1% year-on-year increase from 711.5m tonnes in 2024. While the gain of 5m tonnes was modest, it was enough to set a fresh record and extend a decade that has only seen two annual declines — in 2018 and 2022.
Cargoes tracked range from barley, corn and wheat to soybeans, soybean meal, sugar and canola, across all major loading and discharge regions.
The year did not start strongly. Agricultural loadings fell around 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. But volumes rebounded sharply in the second half, rising 7% year-on-year and 8% compared with the first six months. The recovery helped support a firmer freight environment after mid-year, particularly in the geared and panamax segments.
Momentum has carried into 2026. January loadings totalled 57.1m tonnes, up 8% year-on-year and the strongest January performance in nearly a decade. East Coast South America and the US Gulf led the charge, with export shipments up 22% and 26% year-on-year, respectively.
Separate analysis from BIMCO shows the pace accelerating further. Bulk grain shipments jumped 15% year-on-year in the first six weeks of 2026, driven by a 30% surge in soya bean exports and a 17% increase in wheat shipments.
BIMCO shipping analysis manager Filipe Gouveia said record harvests in the Southern Hemisphere and the US-China trade agreement have boosted flows. Brazilian soya bean production is expected to reach a record 180m tonnes this season, equal to 42% of global output, while Argentina’s wheat crop has hit a new high and Australian wheat production is also up.
Stronger exports from South America have also lifted tonne-mile demand, which is up 17% year-on-year so far in 2026. Longer-haul voyages out of Brazil and Argentina have provided added support to vessel demand, particularly for panamax tonnage.
The Baltic Exchange Panamax Index has risen 69% year-on-year on average during the opening weeks of the year, with grain shipments accounting for roughly a third of the segment’s tonne-mile demand. Supramax volumes are also up 20% year-on-year, though grains play a smaller role in that segment’s overall demand profile.
Looking ahead, first-half prospects remain firm on the back of strong crops and rising Brazilian exports. For the full year, BIMCO forecasts global grain shipments to grow by 5–6% in 2026, though much will depend on Northern Hemisphere harvest outcomes and maize production trends in Brazil.
For now, record crops and steady demand are keeping agribulks at the centre of dry bulk market momentum.
