Danish liner giant Maersk has lowered its global container market forecast for this year due to increased macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Maersk has issued a fresh prognosis for market development in 2025, ranging from a 1% dip to a 4% increase, compared to the 4% rise projected earlier this year.
The Vincent Clerc-led company said the outlook for global container demand over the remainder of the year “remains highly uncertain, shaped by a rapidly evolving trade policy landscape and increasing recession risks in the United States”.
Maersk added that it expects market growth in the second quarter if shippers take advantage of a 90-day pause of reciprocal tariffs by frontloading shipments and building inventories.
“In the latter part of the year, there is, on the one hand, a growing risk that demand could contract, and on the other the possibility that trade rebounds if tariffs are rolled back,” the company said.
Maersk has yet to drop any trans-Pacific services this year, while German peer Hapag-Lloyd said last month that it saw 30% of shipments to the US from China cancelled.
The company added that policy uncertainty and the threat of a further escalation in the trade war “cast a shadow” over the US economic outlook.
“If Chinese exporters redirect lost US exports to other markets, a protectionist backlash could follow, risking a broader trade war,” it warned, adding that it also expects Red Sea turmoil to continue throughout the year.
HSBC saw last week’s global bookings fall 25% week-over-week, but they improved 15% year-over-year following four consecutive weeks of decline. China to US bookings eroded 27%, but the pace of decline eased. Growth in non-China to US bookings improved to 16% year-over-year.
“We caution that weekly volumes could be volatile due to blanked sailings and tariff developments,” HSBC said, but noted that THE share prices of long-haul liners have eroded by only 3% on average since ‘Liberation Day’.
According to Sea-Intelligence, the downfall in China volumes have not made its way to the US coastline yet. This will change in the week ahead, as the first wave of blank sailings and booking downfalls make it to land.
“Container volume data for Asian exports in April will not be available before early June, but indications from carriers and forwarders suggest a Chinese booking downfall in the -30% to -50% range, much greater than the 4%-5% reduction in capacity. While the Chinese volume drop will be partially offset by uptake elsewhere in Asia, it does not seem likely that gains in the rest of Asia can offset the loss from China. This could result in even more blank sailings in the coming weeks, and possibly lead to a significant drop in spot rates,” Sea-Intelligence said in its recent report.
According to the Port of Los Angeles, business is expected to drop 35% year-over-year.
“This is a number which tallies quite well with statements from carriers such as Hapag-Lloyd and Evergreen, as well as forwarders Kuehne+Nagel and Flexport, which are reporting anywhere from 30-50% downfall on bookings out of China,” Sea-Intelligence noted.
“The geopolitical situation and tariff implications make 2025 more unpredictable than usual,” conceded Soren Toft chief executive of world’s largest liner, MSC, in a recent social media post.
