Hurricane Rafael is expected to take aim at the United States after making landfall in Cuba, but the storm’s possible intensity and damage to the U.S. coast remain unclear.
Category 2 Rafael is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane before making landfall in Cuba on Wednesday but is expected to weaken as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said.
Rafael currently has maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
The Florida Keys could see 1 to 3 inches of rain and tornadoes Wednesday, the center said. AccuWeather forecasters say the Florida Keys could see 60 mph winds and 2 to 3 feet of storm surge.
Florida ports were open Wednesday but on alert and monitoring the storm.
SeaPort Manatee, the Port of St. Petersburg and Port Tampa Bay were set to port condition Whiskey on Monday, which means gale force winds were expected within 72 hours. Port Tampa Bay’s weather advisory group began monitoring the storm Monday.
The Port of Key West was operating under X-Ray status as of Tuesday, meaning it expected to see gale force winds within 48 hours.
AccuWeather predicts Rafael will lose intensity due to the cooler waters in the Gulf and wind shear. It remains unclear what path Rafael will take after moving into the Gulf, but forecasters say the greatest chance of a U.S. landfall will occur in Louisiana.
Ports in Louisiana were operating under normal conditions Wednesday, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.
“It is also possible Rafael is torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and dissipates in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said in an announcement.
AccuWeather doesn’t predict Rafael to make landfall as a major storm if it does hit the U.S.
“It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the western Gulf Coast,” the hurricane center said. “Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.”
Heavy rainfall ahead of Rafael is expected to hit the Southeast Wednesday through Thursday, AccuWeather said. Four to 8 inches of rain is expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Some areas of eastern Georgia and southwestern South Carolina could see 8 to 12 inches of rainfall.
Impacts like those seen during Hurricane Helene are not expected, AccuWeather said, but flooding is possible.
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