Over these four years, the container ship fleet has seen phases of contraction, rapid expansion, and moderate growth, reflecting the dynamic nature of global trade and regulatory environments.
The expansion in shipbuilding and fleet size was directly tied to the increasing demand for containerized transport, demonstrating the sector’s resilience and its critical role in global logistics and supply chains.
The global shipping industry, including the container sector, faced significant challenges due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Disruptions in global supply chains and reduced economic activity led to a contraction in shipbuilding activities.
A remarkable recovery and expansion occurred in 2021, driven by a resurgence in global trade as economies began to rebound from the pandemic. This boom was largely fueled by increased demand for goods and the need for more efficient, larger capacity vessels to handle the growing container throughput.
In 2022 shipbuilding continued to grow, particularly in leading countries like China, Korea, and Japan, which accounted for 94% of the market. China increased its shipbuilding by 15.5%, and Korea by 8.3%, while Japan saw a decline of 16.4%. This growth was aligned with the continued increase in global trade and container throughput, necessitating further expansion of the container fleet.
The projection for 2023 showed a more moderate growth in fleet size, estimated at 1.7% in terms of deadweight tonnage. This growth was somewhat constrained by new environmental regulations, which affected ship design and operational efficiencies, including the need for ships to operate at lower speeds to meet emission standards.
Container News constructed a compound indicator to analyze the interaction between demand (trade volume and throughput) and supply (ships built), offering valuable insights into market trends and fleet development.
Combining these three indicators can provide a comprehensive view of the dynamics affecting the container ship fleet’s growth.
The indicator showed a strong rebound in 2021 mirroring the industry’s response to pent-up demand and the surge in trade volumes. The increase in shipbuilding activity, especially with a 129% increase in container ship orders, supports the significant rise in the index, confirming the recovery trajectory post-pandemic.
The decline in the index in 2022 from the previous year could reflect the industry’s adjustment to new regulations and the stabilization after the 2021 spike.
The overall upward trend from 2020 to 2023 suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for the container ship fleet is expansionary, likely fueled by sustained increases in trade volume, container throughput, and shipbuilding activities.
However, the fluctuations in the index from year to year illustrate the container shipping industry’s sensitivity to external shocks and subsequent recovery phases.
