The Trump administration will appeal a trade court ruling that struck down the president’s IEEPA-based tariffs to the Supreme Court, which has agreed to expedite the proceedings. The court will hear arguments in November, with a decision possible before the end of the year. A potential White House loss on appeal is adding uncertainty to a somewhat firming tariff landscape, and could have significant implications for US importers, including refunds for tariffs already paid.
President Trump signed an executive order last week putting 15% tariffs – including on automotive goods – on Japanese exports into effect retroactive to early August after several weeks of negotiations on the details of the agreement in principle announced in July.
But the White House is still struggling to implement several other announced agreements. The US and South Korea are trying to bridge a gap regarding investment commitments. And European Union members are objecting to recent expansions of the global US tariffs on metals which would push duties above the 15% mark for many important EU exports. Another late-week executive order however, exempted a list of items including certain metals from the country-specific tariffs, creating some optimism that similar exemptions will enable negotiators to finalize these agreements.
In ocean freight, USTR port call fees on Chinese carriers and vessels built in China will go into effect on October 14th. Carriers are already making adjustments to minimize their exposure to the rule fees, with Chinese operators to face the biggest challenges, and the overall impact on operations and container rates to the US remaining to be seen.
Transpacific container rates climbed more than 20% or about $400 – $500/FEU last week on start of September GRIs following weeks of decline. These increases pushed rates to $2,163/FEU for the West Coast and $3,240/FEU to the East Coast, with West Coast prices continuing to tick up so far this week. These increases still put prices at about a third of their levels a year ago, but may hold for now on some bump in demand in the lead up to Golden Week – though overall container demand into the US is trending down – and increases in canceled services and blanked sailings.
Even as transpacific volumes sag though, global container demand has continued to grow, with global bookings up 5% annually in July. Part of that growth came from a 10% year on year bump in Asia – Europe volumes. Peak season demand likely peaked on this lane in July and early August, with Asia – Europe rates falling again last week, decreasing 11% to $2,540/FEU.
Asia – Europe prices have decreased 25% in the last month and 67% compared to last year. But even with significantly stronger volumes than in 2024 during the July peak, rate highs that month were still 60% lower than a year prior, likely due mostly to capacity growth.
IATA’s latest air cargo volume data show that, despite the US changes to de minimis, global volumes continue to grow as demand shifts to and is growing on other lanes. Global volumes increased by 5% year on year in July, including 13% growth for Asia – Europe CTKs even as Asia – N. America volumes dipped for a third consecutive month. The US’s August total cancellation of de minimis could have some moderate further impact on US-bound volumes, with more countries considering changes to their de minimis rules as well.
Even with overall growth, the Freightos Air Index global benchmark rate was 4% lower than a year ago in July, with the current global rate 7% lower year on year. Shifts in capacity have minimized rate volatility for many lanes, with China – US rates at $5.30/kg to close last week, and China – Europe prices easing slightly to $3.55/kg. Last year prices were also stable in September before starting to climb with some early peak season pressure in October.
Judah Levine, Head of Research, Freightos Group (Nasdaq: CRGO)
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