As U.S. importers wait on a Supreme Court decision that could upend the last year of work with constantly changing tariffs, a new tool from Flexport is offering businesses a way to quantify what has largely been an abstract legal debate: how much money they might actually get back.
Flxport launched a Tariff Refund Calculator, a public-facing tool designed to estimate potential refunds tied to tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The timing is deliberate. The Supreme Court is weighing a challenge to the federal government’s authority to levy broad tariffs using emergency powers, which is how the tariffs were able to fluctuate so broadly and rapidly in 2025.
“With customers awaiting the ruling, we built this tool to help them scenario-plan,” said Ryan Petersen, Founder and CEO of Flexport. “We can’t predict the Court’s decision, but we can give businesses clearer insight so they’re prepared for whatever comes next.”
For many companies, the case is no longer theoretical. If the Court rules that the tariffs were unlawfully imposed, importers that paid those duties could be eligible for refunds, potentially totaling billions of dollars across industries. The uncertainty lies not just in the ruling itself, but in what comes next: who qualifies, how claims are filed, and whether businesses have the documentation needed to recover funds.
Flexport’s calculator is designed to address that uncertainty early. By allowing importers to upload their U.S. Customs and Border Protection entry data, the tool estimates how much they may have paid in affected tariffs and what portion could be refundable if the Court sides with importers. Rather than waiting for a decision and scrambling to assess exposure, companies can now see a preliminary dollar figure tied directly to their historical shipments.
The Supreme Court case centers on whether the executive branch overstepped its authority by using IEEPA, a law traditionally associated with sanctions and national emergencies, to impose wide-ranging tariffs. During oral arguments, several justices questioned whether Congress intended the statute to function as a de facto tariff mechanism, raising the possibility that the duties could ultimately be struck down. While no outcome is guaranteed, the tone of the questioning has prompted importers, trade attorneys, and customs professionals to prepare for a scenario in which refunds are suddenly on the table.
That preparation is not trivial. Recovering tariffs typically requires timely protests, detailed entry records, and coordination with customs brokers and legal counsel. Some large importers have already filed protective lawsuits or administrative claims to preserve their rights. Others, particularly mid-sized companies without in-house trade teams, risk being caught flat-footed if a refund window opens with limited notice.
“As one of the largest customs brokerages in the U.S., Flexport is uniquely positioned to help businesses of all sizes stay compliant while managing risk and cost,” Petersen added. “Customers kept asking us to see what could be possible, and we wanted to share this tool as soon as possible.”
Flexport’s move reflects a larger shift in how logistics providers are positioning themselves amid regulatory volatility. Rather than simply moving freight, platforms are increasingly acting as financial and compliance advisors, translating legal and policy changes into operational insight. In this case, the calculator functions less as a promise of repayment and more as a planning tool, helping companies understand whether a favorable ruling would represent a marginal adjustment or a material balance-sheet event.
The launch also comes as U.S. Customs and Border Protection has taken steps to modernize and centralize refund processing, signaling that the agency may be preparing for an influx of claims if the Court rules against the government. While officials have not commented on the potential scope of refunds, trade experts say businesses that can quickly substantiate their payments will be better positioned to act.
For importers operating on thin margins, the possibility of recovering past tariff payments could influence everything from pricing strategies to capital allocation decisions. Even the chance of a refund changes how companies think about cash flow and risk in the months ahead.
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