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combination of strong demand and low tonnage supply has triggered a dry bulk market upside during the first half of 2024. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Banchero Costa said that “2023 was a very positive year for the global dry bulk trade. In 2023, the dry bulk trade grew 4% driven by strong demand for coal, fertilizers, nickel ore, grains iron ore and bauxite. Coal was the main driver in 2023 with growth of 7%.
“After such a strong performance during the first 6 months of 2024 coal demand slowed to 2% growth. Coal and soybeans are the only two large trades to show slowing growth in 2024. The soybeans trade grew by 16% in the first 6 months of 2023, but so far this year demand has been essentially flat (-0.6%). As mentioned above, demand for all other trades has continued to grow and has accelerated further. Iron ore demand is up 5% so far this year, compared to 4% during in 2023. The grains trade is up 10%, while it was flat in 2023. The bauxite trade grew by 4% in 2023, with demand up 9% so far in 2024. The steels trade is the fastest growing with Chinese exports booming. Steel trade demand is growing 18% in 2024 after very slow growth 2023. The fertilizers trade grew around 5% last year, in 2024 is up a further 5%. Agribulks were stable in 2023, they have been growing 9% in the first 6 months of 2024”, the shipbroker said.
Banchero Costa added that “overall, according to AXS Marine vessel tracking data, dry bulk demand remained strong in the first half of 2024, accelerating further to 6% growth compared to the same period in 2023. Iron ore accounts for 30% of the additional demand created in 2024, followed by grains (12%), coal and steels (10% each), bauxite (6%), agribulks (4%) and fertilizers (3%). With such healthy demand, the disruptions in Panama and the Red Sea, and the fleet growing by 2% in the first 6 months of the year, it is not surprising that the average rates for the first 6 months of 2024 are significantly higher than for the same period in 2023”:
BDI: 1,836 (+59%)
C5TC: $23,482/d (+92%)
P5TC: $15,910/d (+35%)
S10TC: $13,975/d (+34%)
HS7TC: $12,520/d (+25%)
Meanwhile, on Friday, the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships ferrying dry bulk commodities, rose on Friday to mark a weekly gain on the back of higher rates across all the vessel segments. The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax shipping vessels, gained 50 points, or 2.6%, to 1,997. The index rose 2.9% this week. The capesize index rose 113 points, or 3.6%, to 3,296. The contract was up 0.6% this week. Average daily earnings for capesize vessels, which typically transport 150,000-ton cargoes, such as iron ore and coal, were up $942 at $27,338.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
