A sharp drop in U.S. soybean exports to China could impact more than just farmers — it may soon begin putting pressure on trucking jobs, rail shipments, and port operations across the country.
Once America’s top soybean customer, China has drastically cut back purchases in favor of South American suppliers. With fewer soybeans slated to move overseas, freight demand could plummet — and so could jobs.
“Yes, it’s going to have a real impact on them,” Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, told FreightWaves. “When all of a sudden you’ve got this significant decrease because of geopolitical issues, then it really imposes hardship on the freight rail industry and other transportation modes as well. The companies that invest in export capacity at these terminals — like along the Columbia River or the Puget Sound by Seattle — it’s obviously a real concern.”
China’s pullback stems from trade tensions that began in 2018, when it imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, including soybeans, after Washington raised duties on Chinese imports. Today, Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans remain around 34%, pushing Beijing to shift purchases to Brazil and Argentina, where it has locked in millions of tons.
In 2024, the U.S. shipped an estimated $12.8 billion worth of soybeans to China — about 25% of total U.S. exports, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. But for the 2025–2026 crop year, China has placed zero new soybean orders, a major blow as peak harvest season begins.
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The impact could be especially severe in top-producing states such as Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and Indiana, which together grow about half of the nation’s soybean crop. Nebraska, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Arkansas are also key producers.
Most Midwest soybeans move by rail to the Pacific Northwest for export. In 2024, top shipping hubs included the ports of Seattle, Longview, Kalama, and Vancouver in Washington, as well as Los Angeles and New Orleans.
“There’s a number of these states that are west of the Mississippi River that produce a lot of soybeans, like North and South Dakota, Nebraska,” Steenhoek said. “Traditionally those soybeans are grown and then overwhelmingly railed to the Pacific Northwest and put onto an ocean vessel.”
The fallout from losing China as a customer could ripple through the broader supply chain — hitting warehouse workers, rail yard crews, longshoremen, and local businesses that depend on agriculture exports, said Mary E. Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
“The president’s tariffs will decrease exports and imports, and it will affect those jobs,” Lovely said on WBUR’s On Point this week. “That effect will be felt differently in different parts of the country, because different parts of the country receive trade in different types of goods.”
Steenhoek warned that time is running short for U.S. farmers who rely on Chinese demand.
“Normally 80% of U.S. soybean exports occur between the months of September and February, and the three key months within that six-month period are October, November, December, which is upon us,” he said.
While agriculture leaders acknowledge legitimate concerns with Chinese trade practices, they urge the Trump administration to avoid a blanket approach.
“There clearly are points of friction between the U.S. and China, and they’re legitimate,” Steenhoek said. “But you’ve got this group of people called farmers who are growing crops and helping provide for the nutritional and protein needs of China. Clearly that strengthens our position. I would think you would want to protect that at all costs while trying to resolve these other issues.”
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