With a set of earnings in hand that drew praise from analysts, the second quarter financial report of C.H. Robinson highlighted another ongoing feature at the giant 3PL: the continuing drop in the number of people who work there.
It was the company’s performance that drew congratulations and praise from analysts on its earnings call Wednesday. That support was followed through in early trading Thursday, with C.H. Robinson (NASDAQ: CHRW) up 7.55% to $105.02 at approximately 8:15 a.m. EDT.
With C.H. Robinson executives repeatedly using the word “productivity” during its earnings call with analysts Wednesday, and with productivity at brokerages generally measured on some sort of measure of loads per employee, it brought into focus just how big the drop in employment at the company has been.
The third quarter of 2023 marks the first full quarter after Dave Bozeman became CEO of C.H. Robinson. In that quarter, according to company data, there were 15,577 employees total at the company. Of that, 6,278 were in the North American Surface Transportation (NAST) segment, which includes the company’s truck brokerage activities.
In the just-completed second quarter, the average headcount for the company as a whole was 12,858, down 17.4% from the third quarter of 2023. At NAST, the drop was a smaller percentage, down 15.8%, which is a decline in employment to 5,283 from 6,278.
During that time, revenues at C.H. Robinson and in NAST were largely flat, owing to still-weak freight markets. That is the definition of productivity increases: getting done the same amount of work or more with fewer inputs, including labor.
And the trend is likely to continue. For example, in discussing the company’s guidance for the rest of the year, Damon Lee, the company’s CFO, said C.H. Robinson was reducing its guidance for personnel expenses by about $75 million on both the top and bottom end of its prior range of $1.375 billion to $1.475 billion.
“This reflects our disciplined approach to managing our cost structure and our ability to drive efficiency while positioning the organization for long-term growth, while remaining committed to further decoupling of head count from volume,” Lee said.
Those changes might not need layoffs to be accomplished, based on Lee’s further comment: “With low to mid-teen turnover rates, we are well positioned to manage headcount, primarily through natural attrition, if needed.”
But beyond that, the question was raised by an analyst on the earnings call: how much lower can you go?
Michael Castagnetto, who is the president of NAST, answered with the consistent message that C.H. Robinson executives have not wavered from since Bozeman took over. “We’re going to get more productive every day, every week, every month,” Castagnetto said.
And while some of that could come with further reductions in head count, Castangetto also discussed AI, specifically agentic AI, as a driver as well. Bozeman and others on the call cited numerous instances of productivity improvements brought on by AI that are allowing that reduction in headcount, including using AI to rapidly classify LTL freight under the new categorization regime in that sector implemented by the National Motor Freight Trucking Association.
In ultimately responding to the question of “how low can you go?,” Castagnetto replied: “I don’t believe I would buy the idea that there’s a limit.” But he added: “I think there’s a ton of unknown.”
Lee echoed that idea. “We really don’t see any future of a plateau and productivity for us,” he said. “Our operating model is going to drive us to incremental evergreen productivity.”
From the outsider’s perspective, Jason Seidl of TD Cowen summed up the earnings and the headcount by saying that the margins at NAST “quickly (moved) closer toward long term targets as tech initiatives continue to enable CHRW to do more with less.”
At NAST, gross profits rose to $423.2 million from $419.7 million, a 3% gain. Other numbers at NAST showed improvement. The operating margin of 38% was better sequentially and year-on-year, and also, according to Seidl, beat forecasts.
Market share gains
C.H. Robinson’s internal measurement showed the company gained market share during the quarter. According to the company, truckload volume per business day was up about 4.5% while LTL volume per business day rose 2.5%, numbers that exceeded the volume levels reported in the monthly Cass Index.
Deutsche Bank analyst Richa Harnain noted that the 1% growth in NAST volumes exceeded not only the Cass index but also the volumes reported by the brokerage units of J.B. Hunt (NASDAQ: JBHT) and Knight Swift (NASDAQ: KNX).
Tech keeping capacity alive?
With C.H. Robinson’s executives boasting of their own technology, an analyst asked them whether technology in general might be prolonging a market with excess capacity that was referred to several times as a continuing headwind.
Castagnetto agreed there had been “a democratization of freight brokerage tech over the last couple of years and there are plenty of folks offering capabilities out to smaller brokers.”
He took the opportunity to tout C.H. Robinson’s own technology. “We believe that there is a clear differentiation between what we do in the marketplace and our competition, whether that competition or assets, large brokers or small brokers,” Castagnetto said.
But then he took issue with the thesis: “I’m not sure I would agree maybe with your sentiment on (tech) being a driver of keeping capacity in the marketplace.”
“I would acknowledge the democratization of freight brokerage tech, but we believe our tech stack, combined with our people, is a clear differentiator for us in the marketplace” Castagnetto added.
Other issues raised in the earnings call:
–With a freight market down for so long, brokerages run the risk of an upturn that leaves them facing higher spot rates to secure capacity against lower-priced contracts to move a customer’s freight.
Arun Rajan, chief strategy and innovation officer, said C.H. Robinson believes the technology changes it has made can carry it through that period when rates rise, or in broker parlance, “inflect.”
“Through…rigor, we’ve also improved our ability to manage the short-term gross margin compression that typically comes with a spot rate inflection, such that we are confident in our ability to shorten the time and reduce the impact of any margin compression compared to historical spot rate inflections,” Rajan said. “Over a 12-month time frame, we expect a stronger demand and/or reduction of excess capacity that leads to a spot rate inflection to outweigh any short-term margin compression that may occur. In this regard, we believe our outperformance will continue as spot rates inflect.”
–It doesn’t sound like acquisitions are high on the list of priorities at C.H. Robinson, though Lee said “we’re kicking the tires on inorganic opportunities I would say every week.”
C.H. Robinson is an investment-grade credit, but just by two notches. The company remains a dividend aristocrat, having reached that vaunted level just a few years ago by having increased its dividend payout at least 25 consecutive years. Along with keeping that investment grade rating, “maintaining and growing our dividend are top priorities,” Lee said, without noting the reality that an acquisition gone wrong can often be damaging to a company’s debt rating.
And besides, as Lee said, “the organic opportunities we have internally certainly are attractive.”
The door isn’t closed to an acquisition, Lee said. “We’re not going to make a mistake on M&A,” he said. If the company does a deal, “it will be the right acquisition, and when it is the right acquisition, we’ll pull the trigger.”
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