Small and medium-sized businesses are navigating a new wave of uncertainty following the Supreme Court’s recent decision on tariffs — and in some ways, the ruling has made planning even harder, according to executives at supply chain software firm Netstock.

While the decision struck down certain tariffs, it also opened the door to temporary measures and potential new levies, creating what Barry Kukkuk, Netstock’s co-founder and chief technology officer, described as a murkier environment than before.

“It’s almost like there’s more uncertainty now that this ruling has come through than what there was three days ago,” Kukkuk told FreightWaves. “A year ago it was chaotic. Everything kind of settled down, and we knew where we stood. Now it’s all back in the air again.”

For small and mid-sized businesses (SMBs), which account for 99% of U.S. firms and roughly 44% of GDP, that uncertainty complicates already fragile supply chain decisions. Many are still grappling with whether tariffs paid in recent years could eventually be refunded — and if so, how long that process might take.

“Is anyone going to get refunded, and how is that even going to work?” Kukkuk said. “How many years is that going to take to unroll all of that? It’s just a mess.”

Avoiding Panic in a Volatile Market

Despite the legal and policy upheaval, Netstock executives say their customers are largely resisting knee-jerk reactions.

“Our customers are not panic buying,” Kukkuk said. “They understand that it could go this way or it could go that way. Either way, I need to buy this much at a time.”

That restraint stands in contrast to businesses that still rely heavily on spreadsheets for demand planning. According to Jefferson Barr, Netstock’s senior vice president of global marketing, roughly eight in 10 SMBs continue to use spreadsheets as a primary planning tool.

“When there’s uncertainty, your spreadsheet struggles to model that uncertainty,” Kukkuk said. “You don’t really know where things can go.”

Barr added that volatility has become a constant rather than an exception. “One of the terms that we’ve been using is ‘structured volatility,’” he said. “It’s just in our macro economy. The sooner they can learn to deal with it — beyond just using a spreadsheet — the better position they’re in.”

The past several years have conditioned businesses to expect disruption, from pandemic shutdowns to the Suez Canal blockage to geopolitical tensions. Tariffs are simply the latest shock.

“Since 2020, it’s just been one after the next,” Kukkuk said. “Disruptions are here to stay.”

Refunds Unlikely to Lower Consumer Prices

Even if companies eventually recoup tariff payments, consumers may not see much relief at checkout.

“A lot of them have actually absorbed a lot of the tariffs and didn’t pass the tariffs on to their customers,” Kukkuk said. “Maybe if they get a refund, it will be a bit of a relief and they can get their margins back up a little bit to stay in business for longer.”

Barr echoed that sentiment, noting that many companies reduced product lines or absorbed costs to maintain service levels. “They kind of took a hit on a couple of different fronts last year to weather the storm and keep customer satisfaction high,” he said.

As a result, refunds — if they materialize — may help repair balance sheets rather than drive price cuts.

Diversification Becomes Permanent Strategy

One clear trend emerging from repeated disruptions is supplier diversification. Businesses that once relied heavily on Chinese manufacturing are increasingly exploring alternatives in Vietnam, Singapore and Mexico.

“The diversification has started and I think it will carry on forever,” Kukkuk said. “It’s something that’s been woken up with U.S. importers, and they will always now try to have a diverse supply chain so that they don’t get stuck with the next thing.”

Barr said Netstock’s data shows that appetite for moving away from concentrated sourcing has grown steadily over the past year. “We saw the appetite there,” he said. “And I think we’re going to continue to see that trend.”

Still, shifting suppliers is easier said than done. In some industries, viable alternatives to China remain limited.

Technology as a Survival Tool

Netstock executives said that technology — particularly forecasting tools enhanced with artificial intelligence — is becoming essential for SMB survival in a volatile trade environment.

“If you still think you can get away with a cash register and a bit of Excel, it’s not going to work,” Kukkuk said. “You need the sophistication. That’s the way you’re going to weather the storm and thrive next time.”

Netstock, which provides demand planning and inventory optimization software for SMBs, reported 29% year-over-year growth in 2025 and added 80 net new customers in December alone, a company record.

“When we came into the beginning of last year, we were highly concerned,” Barr said. “How many of our customers are going to go out of business? And they did surprisingly well. They were really agile.”

As the prospect of new tariffs looms in the months ahead, Netstock’s leadership believes SMBs are better prepared than they were a year ago — though not necessarily more comfortable.

“It won’t be a surprise,” Kukkuk said. “It’ll be uncomfortable. But they’ll say, ‘Okay, we now understand how to deal with changes in tariffs.’”

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