Transpacific ocean rates continued their Q4 trend of ups and downs last week with West Coast prices climbing 8% and $200 to $2,100/FEU as carriers increase blanked sailings during this low demand period to try and introduce – and hold on to, at least partially – General Rate Increases every two weeks.
East Coast rates dipped 3% last week, but daily rates this week are up $300 to more than $3,350/FEU. As has been the case since mid-October, rates may retreat again somewhat in the near term. But a more sustained increase could be coming as we get closer to Lunar New Year. Even with the rises and falls though, carriers have succeeded in overall residual gains that have kept prices above year lows set in early October.
More disciplined capacity management on the Asia – Europe lanes have kept rates climbing for much of Q4. But reports of increasing demand as Europe’s importers get an early start on pre-LNY orders now has volume strength supporting the latest GRIs too, with some carriers even restoring some announced blankings. Asia – N. Europe prices rose 11% to more than $2,700/FEU last week, and rates to the Mediterranean increased 15% to $3,850/FEU, with daily rates already above $4,000/FEU – both back to levels last seen this past summer.
This early start – also seen last year – is likely due to continued Red Sea diversions that, for shippers who don’t stock up enough inventory before the holiday, will mean a much longer than usual post-LNY wait to receive goods.
But there are more signs that carriers are taking cautious steps toward resuming Red Sea transits. Maersk sent a vessel through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait late last week for the first time in more than two years, and stated that a few more sailings will follow as they test the feasibility of a full scale return. ONE also joined the group of carriers offering some Red Sea services, though through a charter slot agreement with regional carriers. Insurance premiums for Red Sea transits have fallen somewhat, but shipper concerns over exposure to risk and insurance costs are still a barrier to return, even when some carriers, like Hapag-Lloyd, are ready for a Red Sea trial run.
When Red Sea traffic does resume it will cause worse and significant vessel bunching and congestion at European hubs, and likely drive equipment shortages at Far East origin ports as carriers seek to shorten vessel time spent at berth. The shift back will be disruptive and cause delays and rate increases whenever it occurs, though the effect would be weaker if the return is in the low demand, spring months post-LNY and pre-peak season, and stronger if it coincides with peak season demand increases.
Once that congestion unwinds though, the Red Sea return will increase the amount of capacity available in an already oversupplied market. New vessel deliveries will decrease in 2026 compared to 2025, but the impact of the increase in supply on rates – even if Red Sea diversions continue – will likely be significant nonetheless, with higher levels of newbuild deliveries set for 2027 and 2028.
The Freightos Air Index shows China – US rates have started to come down from year highs as peak season comes to end, with prices falling 7% to $7.47/kg last week and daily rates down to about $6.50/kg. South East Asia – N. America rates are also starting to fall after climbing more than 20% to about $6.00/kg since mid-October. Overall transpacific traffic has proved resilientdespite significant China-US volume drops following de minimis changes – and shifts of Chinese e-commerce tonnage to alternative markets – as electronics volumes out of SEA, especially Vietnam, and Taiwan have grown due to tariff introductions.
China – Europe daily rates are at $3.86/kg, about level with earlier in the month and well below the $5.00/kg mark seen a year ago, with SEA – Europe prices at a year high of $4.15/kg, with daily rates easing.
Judah Levine, Head of Research, Freightos Group
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