Airbus is conducting rigorous systems ground tests as it gears up for a nine-month campaign of flight tests for the all-new A350 freighter beginning next October with hopes of getting the first aircraft in service by the end of 2027.
Airbus has passenger-to-freighter conversion programs for smaller aircraft, but until 2021 had never participated in the large freighter market. It currently has 82 firm orders from 13 airlines and leasing companies, compared to more than 50 orders at Boeing for the next-generation 777-8 freighter.
The company last month released a 20-year forecast calling for shipping demand to grow at a 3.3% compounded annual rate, helping to drive a 45% increase in the worldwide fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft to 3,420 units — 815 existing freighters and 2,605 new units. The majority of new builds (1,530) will replace older aircraft and the rest will be for growth.
Airbus estimates that the new aircraft will be split between 1,120 small aircraft, 855 mid-size widebodies and 630 large widebodies. Overall, of the 2,605 additional freighters, 1,670 will be conversions from passenger aircraft and 935 will be production freighters.
Program managers on Tuesday outlined plans for production of two test aircraft and achieving certification for the next-generation widebody freighter, a derivative of the popular A350 composite-frame passenger aircraft. The freighter program was delayed one year by supply chain problems.
Flight testing will be relatively light — about 400 hours — because the freighter only requires an upgrade certification from the latest A350 variant, the A350-1000, and the engine doesn’t need certification because the Rolls-Royce Trent engines are totally unchanged. That doesn’t mean the process is simple.
“What we’ve learned is that it’s quite tricky to certify the derivative of an existing certified platform. And the certification authorities are much more demanding than they used to be a decade ago,” said Guillaume Vuillermoz, the head of widebody program development, during a virtual briefing for members of the press. “And for that reason we have started about a year earlier compared to what we would have done.”
The airframer has commenced final assembly line work for the first test aircraft, involving the installation of systems, engines and instrumentation, with the second prototype to follow soon.
The first prototype will focus on the aircraft’s behavior in the air, including cruise and autopilot performance, and fly about 300 hours in test mode. The second unit will focus on testing the air conditioning system for cooling and heating, smoke tests and low-visibility take offs.
Airbus has more than 30 sets of ground test equipment that are currently checking the functionality and endurance of operating systems, including for environmental control, fog detection, tail-tip warning and cargo loading, said Vuillermoz. Two specialized facilities are validating the cargo door actuation and capabilities of the automated cargo loading system.
The goal is to obtain concurrent certifications from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency and the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, said lead flight test engineer Laurent Bussiere.
The aerospace giant designed the A350F with a customer wish list of features, including perfect ground stability and in-flight balance when fully loaded, independent pallet loading systems for the main and lower decks, volume to carry outsize loads such as aircraft engines, highly-accurate temperature controlled cargo areas and digital connectivity between the cockpit, cargo and cargo compartment, said Joel Rocker, chief engineer for the A350 project.
The main deck cargo door, for example, is 175 inches across, wider than any cargo door in the market, and the extra reinforced floor will allow pallets with a higher maximum weight, providing flexibility for transporting all manner of goods. Another welcome feature is the watertight main-deck floor, which will allow operators to clean corrosive substances and other dirt without having to worry about corrosion or dry cleaning.
“That will improve, significantly, the operability and the cost of operation,” he said.
Crew upgrades include windows in the galley area and segregated air recirculation for the cockpit area and the cargo compartment, where livestock or other shipments could create unwanted odors.
The A350F can haul up to 111 metric tons, comparable to that of a Boeing 747-400, with a range of 4,700 nautical miles. Powered by the latest Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97 engines, the aircraft will reduce fuel consumption and carbon emissions by 40% compared to previous generation aircraft with a similar payload-range capability, according to Airbus.
Rocker said Airbus has taken a cautious approach on the payload, but is likely to increase the maximum allowable takeoff weight once engineers gather data on how the A350F behaves in real-world operations.
Shipping demand supports production growth
Between 2019 and 2024, the freighter fleet recorded its strongest period of growth, expanding by 33%. The surge was fuelled by heightened demand for goods and air transport when the Covid pandemic disrupted normal supply chain flows. All-cargo carriers and leasing companies heavily invested in feedstock for converting narrowbody aircraft, especially the Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A321, creating a short-term glut. The aerospace manufacturers and aviation experts expect a large number of large freighter retirements in the next few years because airlines held onto assets longer than planned during the Covid era, when freight rates soared.
Airbus has a more conservative outlook about air cargo market growth and fleet expansion than rival Boeing.
Rival Boeing projects a 67% increase in the global freighter fleet by 2044. Last summer it forecast 2,900 new freighters will enter the market, about 300 more than the Airbus estimate, of which 855 will be large widebody aircraft.
Meanwhile, London-based aviation market intelligence and consulting company IBA recently estimated that the global freighter fleet will grow by almost 4,000 aircraft, marking a 41% increase from 2024’s figure of 2,800 in-service aircraft. IBA’s outlook calls for about 2,000 passenger-to-freighter conversions and 900 factory deliveries to drive fleet growth.
Boeing forecast air cargo volumes to grow 3.7% annually. The bottom line is both aircraft manufacturers expect volumes to approximately double over the next two decades.
IBA is even more tempered than Airbus, predicting air cargo shipment volumes will only grow about 1% to 2% per year, as geopolitical conflicts and rising tariff policies cause businesses to diversify their supply chains, especially from China to other countries in the Asia-Pacific like Vietnam and the Philippines, and look at souring goods near their home base.
At the same time, countries like Brazil and Indonesia are becoming stronger economies and opening up to trade, which is attracting freight transportation. Meanwhile, e-commerce remains a standout sector for demand, with IBA anticipating growth of 6% to 7% by 2030, well above global GDP forecasts for the same period.
Although these trends will alter the global air freight flows they won’t hurt overall demand, according to Airbus.
In 2025, air cargo volumes so far have grown about 4% year over year. While a significant drop from last year, when demand grew about 12%, but many still feel the market is solid considering that demand was expected to cool off and fears of a contraction after the Trump administration launched tariff wars early this year.
Boeing is finalizing development of the 777-8 for commercial release in 2028. It will cease producing the legacy 767 and 777 freighters at the end of 2027. Airbus is slightly ahead of Boeing in bringing a next-generation widebody freighter to market, with a late 2027 target date for the first delivery. It has registered 85 orders from 13 customers compared to Boeing, which has more than 50 orders for the 777-8 freighter.
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