Geneva Dry, the world’s premier commodities shipping conference, is set to return to the Hotel President Wilson on the shore of Lake Geneva on April 28 and 29 next year with many of dry bulk’s biggest names set to take the stage.
As well as tech-focused panels, organisers have created commodity-specific sessions with coal being one of the event’s regular big hitters.
Data from broker Banchero Costa shows that coal remains dry bulk’s second most shipped commodity after iron ore, with a record 1.37bn tonnes shipped last year, split 77% thermal and 23% coking. Growth in imports to China, India, and ASEAN is compensating for declining demand from Europe, Banchero Costa noted in a recent update.
The strength in thermal coal flows has been concentrated in East Asia recently, where demand has remained firm since surging in August, according to Signal Ocean Platform. In China, restrictions on domestic coal production have tightened supply, keeping it lower than last year’s production, and pushed domestic prices higher, enhancing the relative competitiveness of imported coal.
Though short of the Q4 2024 peaks, September was the highest month of 2025 for Chinese coal imports and very close to the year-ago level, according to broker Braemar.
A recent report from Commodore Research & Consultancy noted that China’s coal-derived electricity is faring better than domestic coal production again. Prior to July, China’s coal-derived electricity had fared worse than domestic coal production for nine straight months.
“This shift, combined with the overall importance of stockpiling in a time of great global tension, is leading to robust Chinese import demand at present. This tailwind is set to continue,” Commodore predicted.
At the same time, robust manufacturing and power generation activity across other East Asian economies, notably South Korea and Japan, has sustained regional import demand. South Korea saw imports of thermal coal up 47% year-on-year in September, and Japan’s imports were up 5% year-on-year, according to data from Signal.
Signal analysts suggest the short-term demand picture for thermal coal is positive. China will continue to restrict output from its domestic coal mines, limiting supply at a time when the East Asian region heads into winter and there is typically higher power demand. Australia is tipped by Signal as the most likely to step in and supply the coal, as we have already seen thermal coal exports surge by 21% in September, heading mostly to East Asia.
Seaborne coal dynamics are being buffeted by another commodity that will be discussed at length at next year’s Geneva Dry summit.
“Guinea bauxite is increasingly taking tonnage that coal used to fill on capes, with more coal now moving down to panamaxes. This cargo reshuffling is having ripple effects across the entire bulker spectrum,” said Rebecca Galanopoulos, senior content analyst at Veson Nautical.
Looking longer term, global shipping organisation BIMCO is forecasting coal shipments will decline 4.9% between 2025 and 2027 as electricity generation from renewable sources continues to expand, particularly in China, Europe and India. Furthermore, BIMCO argues that the global steel demand outlook is weak, contributing to limited demand for iron ore and coking coal.
Panellists at Geneva Dry will debate this outlook, questioning whether the world has reached peak coal.
“Going forward, tight supply and weather-driven demand will likely make coal the wildcard of dry bulk freight, with volatility rising,” Geneva-headquartered broker IFCHOR Galbraiths suggested in a note to clients.
Other commodity-specific sessions at Geneva Dry include focus on iron ore, agricultural products, and minor bulks.
Companies confirmed to speak include: ADM, Anglo American, Ariston Navigation, Cetus Maritime, CTM, Eramet, Fednav, Heidelberg Materials Trading, Mandarin Shipping, Marfin Management, Nova Marine Carriers, Oceanbulk Maritime, Pangaea Logistics Solutions, SeaTrek Bulk, Star Bulk, SwissMarine, Trafigura, Triton Bulk, Vale and Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings.
The full Geneva Dry agenda can be accessed here.
Geneva Dry registration, at just $880, can be accessed here.
Special Geneva Dry hotel room rates can be found here.
Geneva Dry registration, at just $880, can be accessed here.
Special Geneva Dry hotel room rates can be found here.
