Ocean container rates on U.S. trade lanes are drifting with the tides as shippers and carriers sweat chaotic trade negotiations and a looming tariff deadline that could again change the calculus of the supply chain.
In the past week a series of agreements were forged between the United States and several key trading partners, specifically the European Union and Japan, notes shipping analyst Freightos. These deals set a new standard with a 15% baseline U.S. tariff on most EU and Japanese exports. The U.S.-EU agreement maintains this tariff on automotive exports, which have been subjected to 25% duties since earlier this year. However, agreements reached offer some respite with a reduction from previously threatened higher tariffs.
From a freight perspective, these changing dynamics have had notable implications. Trans-Atlantic ocean freight volumes were steady with 2024 levels through April, but the subsequent implementation of automotive tariffs led to a 7% year-on-year decline in monthly volumes. Trans-Atlantic container rates have been level at about $1,900 per forty foot equivalent unit (FEU) since May.
A significant tariff reduction on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% in mid-May prompted an early peak season surge, as Asia-U.S. West Coast rates spiked to $6,000 per FEU by mid-June. This surge was short-lived as rates fell back to pre-rise levels of approximately $2,300 per FEU by mid-July, stabilizing thereafter as carriers adjusted capacity in response to lower demand levels.
Freightos alluded to additional agreements under negotiation with other key U.S. trading nations such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. These preliminary pacts, involving tariffs between 19% and 20%, reflect the Trump administration’s broader strategy of anchoring tariffs within the 15% to 20% range. Such moves could both stabilize and blur traditional freight demand cycles as shippers adjust strategies to leverage tariff fluctuations.
An extended pause in China retaliatory tariffs serve as a harbinger for potential continuity of peak season demand. An additional 90-day extension of the 30% baseline tariff through the end of the peak season could encourage certain importers to resume bookings, albeit with the overarching uncertainty possibly impacting volume predictions, Freightos said.
Price stabilization is evident in Asia-Northern Europe shipping routes, albeit with reported price dips aligned to generalized peak season demand dynamics and ongoing congestion at major European ports. Current rates have leveled out around $3,419 per FEU, reflecting the cumulative impact of both demand spikes and subsequent vessel overcapacity.
Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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