The volume of ship traffic in the Red Sea has increased by 60% since August 2024, now reaching 36 to 37 ships per day. Despite the rebound, volumes remain well below pre-crisis levels, according to Rear Admiral Vasileios Gryparis, commander of the EU’s Aspides naval mission.
Gryparis told Reuters that the uptick in merchant shipping through the Bab Al-Mandab Strait followed a reduction in Houthi missile and drone attacks, as well as a ceasefire agreement between the US and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement.
Shipping volumes had plummeted to just 20 to 23 ships per day last August, versus an average of 72 to 75 ships before Houthi attacks began in November 2023 in response to Israel’s war in Gaza. Although the recovery is notable, Gryparis emphasised that maritime traffic remains significantly below pre-conflict levels.
According to Gryparis, the last known attack on a commercial vessel occurred in November 2024. Since then, the Houthis have narrowed their targets to Israeli-linked vessels or those that have previously docked at Israeli ports.
“If your vessel doesn’t fall under those categories, the likelihood of being targeted is extremely low—more than 99%,” Gryparis said. However, he warned that absolute safety could not be guaranteed.
Since its deployment, the Aspides mission has provided close protection to more than 450 ships.
Despite the relative calm, uncertainty about sending ships through the Red Sea has remained. Last month, US President Donald Trump declared that the Red Sea shipping crisis was nearing an end after more than 17 months. He claimed that the Houthis had agreed to halt their attacks on shipping, and that in return, Washington would stop its strikes on the rebel group.
However, the Houthis continue to issue defiant statements, and major global shipping lines remain cautious. During recent earnings calls, most operators indicated it is still too soon to resume regular transits through the Red Sea.
