The future of coal was one of the dominant topics crystal balled at this year’s Geneva Dry conference, with some panellists believing that last year saw the peak in seaborne trades.
The panel, led by Benjamin Wilkes, chief operating officer of d’Amico’s dry cargo division, opened with coal’s largest importer, China, and discussed where the volumes are heading.
Peter Weernink, chairman of dry bulk operator SwissMarine, told delegates that volumes are declining and that he thinks they will very likely continue to decline.
“The market is weak. Anything you read about the Chinese market suggests there’s no pool for coal imports,” he said.
For Stamatis Tsantanis, chairman and CEO of capesize owners Seanergy and Union Maritime, it’s all about energy security, and the reason for increased imports in China was backed by the need to feed its power production plants.
“If you remember, everything has been revised a number of times about coal and imports of coal, and there are so many things going on in the world, but most importantly outside of the SDG agenda, and we have to think about energy security, and in the world of tomorrow, I think energy security is paramount.”
William Fairclough, the managing director of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport, agreed with Tsantanis that national security is at the heart of the discussion.
“I think what we’ve seen is a fundamental shift in the balance of power between decarbonisation on the one hand and national security on the other hand,” he said, noting that last year China approved and started construction of more coal-fired power stations than at any point in the last 10 years.
This additional coal capacity is, however, seen as a safety net for China as it invests and relies more on renewable energy.
“That capacity is there for a rainy day,” Fairclough argued, reminding that the real question one should be asking is how many rainy days there are going to be between now and 2030.
Asked if China is going to try and maintain a certain amount of import volume, Jason Martinet, ex-head of dry freight at Montfort Trading, said it is very much subject to how much it will outperform on the renewable front, as it has in the last five years.
“Do I think that the share of coal in their energy mix is going to move? is anyone’s guess,” he added.
Turning the discussion to India, Tsantanis finds that imports would continue at pace, with industrial production moving into the country and out of China and projected steel production growth needed for infrastructure projects.
“I don’t see India slowing down their coal imports, whether that’s metallurgical coal or thermal coal, anytime soon,” he said.
Weernink maintained his view on falling coal imports for India as well, noting that “there’s just a lot of call around in India and in China and difficult to place anything.”
Concerns were also raised about the deteriorating Atlantic coal trade since Colombian miners were cutting back on production, and a decrease in US activity was anticipated.
Overall, energy security was cited as a main driver for continued imports, with Tsantanis advocating that Europe and the rest of the world should not be relying so much on renewables, at least for the vast majority of their energy needs.
“We really need to be stocked, up to a point, to undertake the future demands of energy,” he said.
For Fairclough, there will be fluctuations based on how many ‘rainy days’. “I think the key for me is that the capacity is there; that could be a reactive thing to an external event, and we’ve seen a few of those.”
Speaking from the audience, Guillaume Perret, the founder and director of consultancy Perret Associates, noted that in terms of demand, coal has yet to peak, and the big question is whether the Chinese and Indian coal production can follow this demand and whether that will potentially trigger an increase or a decrease in seaborne flows.
Geneva Dry, the world’s premier commodities shipping conference, returns on April 28 and 29 next year, with delegate passes being limited. Tickets are now on sale here.
